Saturday, 08 December 2007

Rants

Pay no attention to the gang on the press bus


The media's sudden interest in the Mike Huckabee candidacy has dismayed a number of conservative commentators[1].  All that media attention lends an air of inevatiblity to his nomination, despite the fact that the process hasn't even passed the Iowa caucuses yet.  Are we getting an accurate picture?  What's actually going on here?

Republicans need to keep in mind that Huckabee (or any other "religious" candidate, for that matter) is the kind of candidate that the media believes Republicans would nominate. What's more, he is also the kind of candidate that the media would like Republicans to nominate. But neither of these qualities makes him the kind of candidate that Republicans (necessarily) should nominate.

Because for Republicans the media makes a poor advisor: Firstly, the liberal mindset of the chattering classes puts them out of touch with what it means to be a Republican, and makes them hostile to core Republican values.[2] This lack of understanding and empathy infects the Standard Narrative on which the press hangs its reportage, disconnecting it from reality and making it unreliable. It's funhouse-mirror journalism in which side issues are emphasized, while important things get missed.

There's also the liberal agenda. The press writes favorably about those it likes, unfavorably (or not at all) about those it dislikes. What it likes are Republicans who look like Democrats, the classic RINOs. But except in some "blue" districts, nominating a RINO isn't the party's best move: Given the choice between a real Democrat and an imitation one, voters generally go for the real. Especially at the national level, it is vital to not confuse media drum-thumping in favor of some "least objectional Republican" with genuine support. As the pollsters might say, we're not hearing from "likely Republican voters" here.

(We've seen this before in this campaign: The canonical example is the perennial John McCain boomlet– despite the fact that McCain's eponymous "campaign finance reform" law (widely supported by the mainstream press) has made him a complete nonstarter among the Republican base.)

That liberal mindset also means that, when the chips are down, most members of the media support any Democrat over any Republican. And that means the coverage of Republican affairs can be not only unsympathetic and inaccurate, but also hostile. Segments of the press would like nothing better than Republican defeat. Those folks focus on "let's you and him fight" edge issues (Biblical accuracy, abortion, Confederate flag), give bad advice ("Compromise your principles and move to the 'center.'"-- i.e., leftward.),[3]  and promote the weaker candidates while sniping at the stronger ones.  

And finally, a reminder that the press likes a close contest, and that coverage can drive the polls to make it so. Especially in the early stages, when the candidates are relatively unknown, a fair percentage of poll responses are driven by name recognition. The press starts the snowball rolling by giving more coverage to a particular candidate, which leads to higher poll numbers, which leads to stories about how the candidate's position has improved, the numbers go up more, rinse-n-repeat.[4] .

So pay no attention to the gang on the press bus, or, at least, take what they say with a shaker of salt.


[1] Elsewhere:

•Brickmuppet's Blog: Huckleberry Blogburst (This post, also linked below, includes links to several others.)
•Daily Pundit categories: Election08, RINOs
•continuous sniping at Ace of Spades HQ (but I couldn't generate a search link)


[2] Not to mention the disconnect between the coastal press and "mainstream America."
[3] Contrast this with the fact that the party achieves its greatest victories (the Reagan election, the "Contract With America") when it stays true to its conservative roots.
[4] Later on, when "supporters" find out the actual positions of the candidate they "supported," the numbers can drop!

Posted by: Old Grouch in Rants at 21:58:48 GMT | No Comments | Add Comment
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