Monday, 20 October 2008

In Passing

A *reverse* “hockey stick”?


Earlier today “JammieWearingFool” linked an opinion piece by the National Post’s Lorne Gunter, “Thirty years of warmer temperatures go poof.”  The graph that came with the article immediately caught my eye.  Here ’tis:
from National Post: Lower Troposphere Global Temperature: 1979-2008
I know enough about statistics to know that I don’t know much about them.  But... assuming that the data are accurately ploted, and assuming the trend line has been accurately calculated, my “eyeball” inspection says the trend line starts to curve downward in about 2003, first at an increasing rate, then stablilzing about mid-2007.

Now sensible people would say that you’ll see trends like this when you graph any natural phenomena that tend toward a normal value, and that we should shortly expect the trend to flip positive again.  But the slope of the curve is pretty severely negative, so even with the trend turning positive we could expect to see negative figures on the chart for several years to come.

Gunter looks at the graph and says, “all of the rise in global temperatures since 1979 has disappeared.”  Well, the data charted here doesn’t support that.[1]  It will take several years’ worth of negative entries before that happens.

Still, it’s amusing to take that trend curve, and do a little extrapolation:


OMG, we’re all gonna freeze!


Which will, of course, make no difference whatever to some people.

Elsewhere:
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[1] AIUI, the ordinate actually plots the “global ∆T,” the month-to-month change in overall global temperature.  Thus any positive value means “a global temperature increase over the previous month.”  See here.

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Friday, 17 October 2008

In Passing

Throwing ACORN under the bus...


Well, now I believe I’ve seen everything. From the comments to this post at Jake Tapper’s ABC blog (where a different commenter accused him of racism for quoting Ice Cube in the post title), comes this:

bah

The BBC did a really good piece on the truth about ACORN saying that:

ACORN IS THE SMOKE SCREEN FOR THE REPUBLICAN PARTY... KNOWING THAT THEY ARE GOING TO LOSE RATHER THAN ADMIT THAT THEY HAVE BAD POLICIES AND IDEAS THEY INTEND TO BLAME IT ON ACORN...

SHOULD THE ELECTION BE CLOSE THE REPUBLICAN PARTY WILL TRY TO USE THE COURTS TO ELECT THE REPUBLICAN CANDIDATES INTO OFFICE...

THIS IS THE GAME PLAN FOX IS SETTING THE GROUND WORK

Posted by: Kellie | Oct 13, 2008 12:00:14 PM
A search of the BBC site didn’t yield any result resembling this story, but plugging "acorn “smoke screen” Republican" into Google turned up a bunch of links to lefty sites that variously claimed the Republicans are using the ACORN issue to
“...create a smoke-screen to mask their [the Republicans'] larger drive to suppress Democratic voters across America”
As an excuse for
“new photo ID restrictions at the polls”
As
“a useful scapegoat for Republican culpability in the current financial meltdown”
And, again
“to distract the media from the voter disenfranchisement that the GOP is busy quietly instigating.”
(All of which, by the way, cast ACORN as a well-meaning, innocent victim of Republican machinations.)

But, alas, no “ACORN is really a secret Republican plot.”  At least, not yet.

That must be tomorrow’s talking point. 

Tomorrow:  When the rising uproar over ACORN’s fraud makes its links to the Obama campaign a damaging liability.  When the Obama campaign decides to throw ACORN under the bus.


HT: “Slublog” (at Ace), for pointing me to the Tapper post.

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Wednesday, 15 October 2008

In Passing

Writing genre fiction can be liberating


Because I can[1]

...write a 12-book series with a premise that would never get me lunch in New York with a real editor, because it’s not a memoir about growing up a one-legged quadroon whose parents ran a fig plantation in Madagascar and converted the locals to a strange variant of Rosicrucianism that combined Freemasonry and Amway.

------
[1]  Actually, Lileks can (well, I suppose I could, too), but “I” worked better with the quote...

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Tuesday, 14 October 2008

In Passing

Wrongheaded


Right or wrong?

“We may hate high fuel prices, but they’ve been driving us in the right direction when it comes to fuel economy,” said General Motors Corp. Vice Chairman Bob Lutz, the company’s leading cheerleader for its $500-million program to develop an electric car, the Chevy Volt. “If we suddenly went to $1 or $1.50 a gallon, that would be really bad.”
...only if you think that maintaining an artificially high price for a fundamental economic input is a good idea.

Because we’ve had artificially high oil prices since the advent of OPEC. And a big reason those prices have been maintained is the connivance of the no-drill Democrats (and the Saudi-captive Republicans) in Congress.

Lutz, of course, argues from the standpoint of General Motors: A failing company that has spent a lot of money on electric car technology; technology that may not have a market if oil prices come down. High prices created a protected space, falling prices might destroy it.[1] And, of course, he’s joined by the environmentalists.

But one suspects that their concern comes as much from elitism and social engineering as from conservation. Consider these comments (excerpted) from AutoblogGreen
10-14-2008 @ 8:34AM | ryan said:

...it would be unfortunate if gas were to get cheap again. Americans have really short memories, and would jump into hulking trucks again in no time.
10-13-2008 @ 12:05PM | Kevin said:

Should every Tom, Dick, or Harry be allowed to go out and buy a 5000-6000 pound vehicle just because he has a driver's license?
10-13-2008 @ 2:13PM | rsbell said:

... Most people are more concerned with their immediate experience: the money in their pocket. “Big picture” thinking doesn't apply to most people.
10-13-2008 @ 4:06PM | Noz said:

Most old habits haven't changed....you'll still find plent...I mean PLENTY of douchebags out in the San Fernando Valley, Simi, etc.. who are living in their burbs house with 2-3 Denalis, Excursions, etc...
(Yep, things would be great if it wuzznt for all them goobers with their big SUVs and short memories.)

One would think that cheap energy would be a great thing for this country. But, of course, cheap energy would solve problems, not exacerbate them.

The trail starts at Instapundit.
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[1] For a related example, consider “How come we get the low-grade Coca-Cola here in America?”

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Sunday, 12 October 2008

In Passing

Need’s more Apostrophe’s


You know, it’s difficult taking someone seriously who writes sentences like this:

The point is, Sarah Palin and her hockey mom’s, grandpa’s and second cousins, don’t want her to be authoritative.
Just sayin’...

(Note:  As of 21:27, the errant apostrophes have been expunged.)

Via: Althouse

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Saturday, 11 October 2008

In Passing

Palin and “Tasergate”


Given the prevailing tenor of this blog’s previous Sarah Palin posts (see “Previously,” below), I suppose I should say something about the Branchflower report (released yesterday) on Palin’s actions in re: the firing/reassignment of Alaska’s Commissioner of Public Safety.  Fortunately, better minds than mine have already examined its 263 pages, and found it wanting:

Gov. Palin’s so-called “firing” of Monegan (it wasn’t a firing, it was a re-assignment to other government duties that he resigned rather than accept) can’t simultaneously be a violation of the Ethics Act [the Report’s “Finding 1” - o.g.] and “a proper and lawful exercise of her constitutional and statutory authority.” [the Report’s “Finding 2”]
Unsurprisingly, lapses in logic are simply too nuanced for our in-the-tank press to notice (especially when drawing attention to them might get in the way of the Official Narrative):
The New York Times and other media outlets, like CNN, MSNBC, Washington Post, etc., all claim the same basic headline - that Governor Sarah Palin abused her power in the allegations that she fired a state trooper...

My own reaction:  If the investigation had uncovered something substaitial, this could have been big.  But it turns out there’s no “there” there.  People who have been paying attention (rather than using the controversy as a “gotcha”) already suspected this, and will be unsurprised.  Others– including most of the mainstream press– will take advantage of the report’s internal inconsistencies to spin it to match their agenda.  Also unsurprising.

Beyond that, it’s not worth wasting a lot of time over.  But, if you insist, start with Bill Dyer’s post, then skim the report itself.


Elsewhere:

Previously:

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In Passing

Latest Palin scandal... whoops, never mind!


So Gawker’s Nick Denton continues his webpage’s race to the bottom by posting a scan of “Sarah Palin’s SAT scores” yesterday afternoon.

...This document which is floating around the web... purports to represent the high-school grades of one Sarah Heath of Wasilla, Alaska, now the Republican running mate.

Less than twenty four hours later, Max Torque, posting on the Straight Dope forum, identifies the exact image used to create the fake.  (Turns out it belongs to Dawn Eden.)

Hey, it’s on the internet.  Use something you find there to create a forgery, better bet that someone else has seen it.  And is now laughing at you.

More:  Seems that Denton has an issue with Eden.  I wonder if he’ll try to blame her that he got fooled?

Previously:  URGENT STOP PRESS PALIN LATEST

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Friday, 10 October 2008

In Passing

Wal-Mart announces DRM reprieve


It’s still alive!

Based on feedback from our customers, we have decided to maintain our digital rights management (DRM) servers for the present time.  What this means to you is that our existing service continues and there is no action required on your part.  Our customer service team will continue to assist with DRM issues for protected windows media audio (WMA) files purchased from Walmart.com.
Slashdot commenter “myxiplx” observes:
...You can bet that Wal-Mart execs are not at all happy about having to pay for and run a bunch of servers that are no longer making them any money.  You can bet that just opened their eyes to the downsides of DRM, and that some people at the top are now asking the music labels some tricky questions, namely “how long are we supposed to keep paying to run these damn things now?”.

Wal-Mart will not want to be left in this position again...


Earlier:  This time it’s Wal-Mart

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Saturday, 04 October 2008

In Passing

Martin Feldstein as Groucho Marxist


So the House of Representatives passed the pork-ified Senate bailout bill, bringing the taxpayers-are-on-the-hook total to One Trillion Eight Hundred Billion Dollars.

Think they’re finally done with us?  Bwa-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha!

A successful plan to stabilize the U.S. economy and prevent a deep global recession must do more than buy back impaired debt from financial institutions.  It must address the fundamental cause of the crisis: the downward spiral of house prices...

The recently enacted financial rescue plan does nothing to stop this...

We need a firewall to break the downward spiral of house prices.  Here's how it might work.  The federal government would offer any homeowner with a mortgage an opportunity to replace 20% of the mortgage with a low-interest loan from the government...  This would be available to new buyers as well as those with mortgages...

...The total size of the mortgage-loan program might be as much as $1 trillion... - Martin Feldstein
*HONK*
Make that TWO Trillion Eight Hundred Billion Dollars!

Hey, it’s only money!

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Wednesday, 01 October 2008

In Passing

Or maybe they’d prefer not hearing from you


The House is limiting e-mails from the public to prevent its websites from crashing due to the enormous amount of mail being submitted on the financial bailout bill.

As a result, some constituents may get a “try back at a later time” response if they use the House website to e-mail their lawmakers about the bill defeated in the House on Monday in a 205-228 vote. - The Hill

Via:  doubleplusundead

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