Monday, 15 February 2010
Gone Bayh-Bayh...
So The Indianapolis Star and The Washington Post are both reporting that Indiana’s junior Senator Evan Bayh has decided to pass on a run for a third term. I’ll probably have more to say about this, but a few points come to mind immediately:
So why this decision? Short of the pending revelation of some yet-unforseen Dark Secret, I would speculate that Bayh’s internal polling is showing that the next campaign would be, for Bayh, a difficult one, and for the Democrats nationally, disastrous. We’re talking loss-of-both-houses disastrous, which, if true, would also explain Mike Pence’s decision to stay out of the Senate race and remain in the House (in a Republican sweep, Speaker of the House trumps junior Senator).
I would also note that Bayh’s statement, which complains about the stalemate and lack of bi-partisanship in Congress, backhandedly endorses the wisdom of the Republican strategy of refusing to provide the super-majority Democrats with political cover. Bravo.
Meanwhile, Scott at The Hoosierpundit offers a short list of possible Democrat candidates, but in a subsequent post notes that Indiana University student (and “healthcare activistâ€) Tamyra D’Ippolito, who had been attempting to challenge Bayh in the primary, was (as of the 12th) only 1,000 signatures away from getting on the ballot. Now read on:
Elsewhere (more links added 100216 †17:10 ‡23:15):
Previously: A little nervous, Evan?
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So The Indianapolis Star and The Washington Post are both reporting that Indiana’s junior Senator Evan Bayh has decided to pass on a run for a third term. I’ll probably have more to say about this, but a few points come to mind immediately:
• Hoosiers usually vote for people they like, then for party. While liberals don’t win statewide elections, Bayh has kept his reputation “conservative enough†to remain likable to most hoosiers (while usually voting “liberal enough†to satisfy most of his party’s progressives). Although he’s under challenge from the left (see below), under normal circumstances he’d be a shoo-in for winning the primary and for reelection.
• Hoosiers also don’t vote strategically: They’re not going to say, “I should vote against this Democrat (who I like) because I would be better off if the seat was held by a Republican.â€
• Bayh has a lot of money, and his organization does a lot of polling. While the trend hasn’t been good, the numbers I’ve seen still show the seat leaning strongly Democrat.
• The strongest Republican challengers (Rep. Mike Pence and Governor Mitch Daniels) have already said they’re not interested.
• Hoosiers also don’t vote strategically: They’re not going to say, “I should vote against this Democrat (who I like) because I would be better off if the seat was held by a Republican.â€
• Bayh has a lot of money, and his organization does a lot of polling. While the trend hasn’t been good, the numbers I’ve seen still show the seat leaning strongly Democrat.
• The strongest Republican challengers (Rep. Mike Pence and Governor Mitch Daniels) have already said they’re not interested.
So why this decision? Short of the pending revelation of some yet-unforseen Dark Secret, I would speculate that Bayh’s internal polling is showing that the next campaign would be, for Bayh, a difficult one, and for the Democrats nationally, disastrous. We’re talking loss-of-both-houses disastrous, which, if true, would also explain Mike Pence’s decision to stay out of the Senate race and remain in the House (in a Republican sweep, Speaker of the House trumps junior Senator).
I would also note that Bayh’s statement, which complains about the stalemate and lack of bi-partisanship in Congress, backhandedly endorses the wisdom of the Republican strategy of refusing to provide the super-majority Democrats with political cover. Bravo.
Meanwhile, Scott at The Hoosierpundit offers a short list of possible Democrat candidates, but in a subsequent post notes that Indiana University student (and “healthcare activistâ€) Tamyra D’Ippolito, who had been attempting to challenge Bayh in the primary, was (as of the 12th) only 1,000 signatures away from getting on the ballot. Now read on:
Bayh declined reelection at the last possible minute so that no Democrat would be on the [Democrat primary] ballot for Senate in Indiana, and thus Democratic Party insiders (largely Bayh cronies) would pick who is on the ballot in November.but...
If Tamyra D’Ippolito is on the ballot, then that’s all she wrote. They can’t pick anyone else. She will be their nominee, period.The deadline for signatures is Tuesday (tomorrow), noon. Hey, tea partiers, wanna have some fun and see a real leftist as Democrat nominee?
Elsewhere (more links added 100216 †17:10 ‡23:15):
The Indianapolis Star: Evan Bayh will not seek re-election
The Fix: Evan Bayh won’t seek re-election, Senate majority in play?
Indiana Daily Student (via HP): Former Sen. Coats Eyes Bayh’s Seat
Contentions: Phony Centrists Pay the Price for ObamaCare
†Gateway Pundit: Tamyra D'Ippolito says she has enough signatures
†Hot Air: Indiana Dem: White House is conspiring to put Baron Hill in Bayh’s spot
‡Sissy Willis (via IP): It’s not the people’s seat, it’s the Bayh seat!
Frank James would have preferred it’d been Dick Lugar
†Indy Democrat: Bayh’s legacy will be mixed
Joanna: Is you is, or is you ain’t, mah constichency?
†Tam: In what world...?
Continuing Coverage! at Ace of Spades HQ:
†Nathan: Bye bye, baby Bayh
Flopping Aces: Breaking News...
The Fix: Evan Bayh won’t seek re-election, Senate majority in play?
Indiana Daily Student (via HP): Former Sen. Coats Eyes Bayh’s Seat
Contentions: Phony Centrists Pay the Price for ObamaCare
†Gateway Pundit: Tamyra D'Ippolito says she has enough signatures
†Hot Air: Indiana Dem: White House is conspiring to put Baron Hill in Bayh’s spot
‡Sissy Willis (via IP): It’s not the people’s seat, it’s the Bayh seat!
Frank James would have preferred it’d been Dick Lugar
†Indy Democrat: Bayh’s legacy will be mixed
Joanna: Is you is, or is you ain’t, mah constichency?
†Tam: In what world...?
Continuing Coverage! at Ace of Spades HQ:
• BREAKING: Sen. Evan Bayh (D-IN) Will Not Seek Re-Election
• Control of the Senate
• †Evan Bayh Withdrawal Speech Thread
• †Mike Pence: How many times do I have to tell you...?
• †Indiana Republicans: Go sign this woman’s petitions...
• †Top Headline Comments 2-16-10
Le•gal In•sur•rec•tion: • Control of the Senate
• †Evan Bayh Withdrawal Speech Thread
• †Mike Pence: How many times do I have to tell you...?
• †Indiana Republicans: Go sign this woman’s petitions...
• †Top Headline Comments 2-16-10
• ‡Holy ... Bayh Retiring!
• ‡Hey Evan, Turns Out the Base Wasn’t That Into You
• ‡Now Evan Bayh is “Immoralâ€
• ‡Mass Delusion Sweeping Dem Base
Ruth’s Blog: From the Indianapolis Star...• ‡Hey Evan, Turns Out the Base Wasn’t That Into You
• ‡Now Evan Bayh is “Immoralâ€
• ‡Mass Delusion Sweeping Dem Base
†Nathan: Bye bye, baby Bayh
Flopping Aces: Breaking News...
Previously: A little nervous, Evan?
Posted by: Old Grouch in
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1
Heh-heh-heh! Where do I sign my name?
Posted by: Rob K at 02/15/10 22:16:24 (RxzlF)
2
According to Senate voting records, Bayh has yet to vote against any Obama or party initiatives. How does that make him "conservative enough?"
Posted by: Crucis at 02/15/10 22:41:29 (L4D3z)
3
@ Crucis,
Note that I said “kept his reputation ‘conservative enough’â€... which has as much to do with marketing (and media protection) as it does with his actual voting record.
This year I had expected a no-vote on cap-and-tax (with Lugar voting “aye†to maintain his internationalist creds - result: Bill still passes). With that and his vote against the Omnibus Spending Bill (which still passed), Bayh could make claims of “protecting Indiana's interests†and being “fiscally conservativeâ€, without affecting the Obama agenda one whit. But the majority of his campaign would conisist of feel-good TV about “working for Hoosiers†and “experience in Washington†(and the like). That alone would probably be enough to get him re-elected, as the Indiana press - especially the Gannett papers - are too far in the Democrat tank to ever mention his record- let alone analyze it critically.
Note that I said “kept his reputation ‘conservative enough’â€... which has as much to do with marketing (and media protection) as it does with his actual voting record.
This year I had expected a no-vote on cap-and-tax (with Lugar voting “aye†to maintain his internationalist creds - result: Bill still passes). With that and his vote against the Omnibus Spending Bill (which still passed), Bayh could make claims of “protecting Indiana's interests†and being “fiscally conservativeâ€, without affecting the Obama agenda one whit. But the majority of his campaign would conisist of feel-good TV about “working for Hoosiers†and “experience in Washington†(and the like). That alone would probably be enough to get him re-elected, as the Indiana press - especially the Gannett papers - are too far in the Democrat tank to ever mention his record- let alone analyze it critically.
Posted by: Old Grouch at 02/15/10 23:51:06 (lLq3R)
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